Sunday, August 14, 2011

World economic facts: We pay $833 per second on our debt to the world

The post-american 2011 revolution sees itself as a default nation ready but unable to convene a world of nations to solve a contagion of economic crisis and unemployment that continues to rise every day.  But the amid these bleak cloud of negativity, S & P is ever strong; technology manufacturing is changing at its rapid pace, and a changing face of industrialization on emerging markets of Asia, Brazil and India. There is "fundamental sea of change of power" and a broadening of the economic horizons. But why is America not leading the change?

Globalization, Technology and emerging nations (source of cheap labor and market), recessions and unemployment are all gyrating at same time leaving the american workforce in a turmoil never seen before in our grandfather's lifetime. Global companies have access to cheap money and capital, resources and supplies around the globe and an emerging market that loves our products produced by the global companies like Apple, GM, Ford, GE J&J and other biotech companies to name a few.

The american workers are stuck in a country with a house of congress divided and unemployed workers leaving their homes, a government that has become "an insurance company with a large army", much like an institution that readies to bail out an industry in turmoil.  To borrow from Fareed, the government has become "an insurance agency".  Is the U.S. ready to meet this challenge of utilizing its armies of "intelligent but unemployed workers"?  Or is it a workforce that is "under training ?"

A humbler america and not imposing americans that wants to convene the world; It wants to reboot itself and desires to meet the challenges of the global nations on Clean energy, education, financial turmoils around the globe, currency and exchange rate...It wants to reboot itself to lead the global economy using its technology whose products are made in the U.S and a "skilled workforce"using its own made in the US technology, a global workforce led by its youth. But before it could reboot itself, it needs to directly face the hard realities of "energy productions, Social security, medicare, entitlements, aging baby boomers. Congress and both sides of Washington politics must be ready to solve these hard issues and tell us what we will be expecting from all fronts of the economy, unemployment and taxes. If we need to rediscover our strength and make a difference to a world that is in transition, where emerging markets are becoming equals in the world stage, we need to find our role as an american technology savvy-workforce ready to pay creditors our bills; that uses a cleaner energy, that invents tools for everyone, that stands for human rights abuses....that understands, sympathetic to humanity's needs and rights.
  •  Fared Zakaria in his television show CNN GPS, says that the United States pays $833 per second on interest rate?
  • The International Monetary Fund pointed out in a report last month that a stronger renminbi would not necessarily bolster job creation in the United States. 
  • So instead of Mr. Biden (whose trip to China on Tuesday to meet Xi Jinping) pressing the Chinese on their currency, Chinese officials are likely to be pressing him about the stability of the dollar. All the while, they will be trying to gauge the strength of President Obama, having witnessed the difficulties he faced in persuading Republicans in Congress to raise the debt ceiling.
  • USA does not need China but we are actually doing them a favor. If their export machines (using cheaper cost as its tool) dies, then inflation becomes a real big damaging issue; thus their currency appreciate. Should Chinese inflation becomes a real damaging issue, it will make their labor costs high and eventually slows the export machine.
  • China's investment has no place to go? They would reinvest that on technology and military budget.

China will not admit but a measured progress will do good for China; Quietly investing to strengthened its global export machine is surely a no brainer. They will buy or create products similar to Japanese that became an intrinsic part of our society: Our cheaper clothings,  cheaper construction materials, cheap medicines, cheap jet engines etc!

What do we do then on the home front is to invest on a comprehensive and intelligent ways; to put our technology prowess and products of R&D into a global product allowing our youth and university intelligent products into path of commercialism, looking beyond our borders to stabilize the middle east, compete and export our visionary health care products. Continuosly refocus ourselves into leaner, smarter, passionately workforce which is an institution to not dominate the global neighbors but to be a strong advocate of competition  for greener and healthier products around the world!

  • Allowing our newly focused-automakers to continually reinvent itself, placed our architects and planners to reinvent the city we lived in, putting our engineers work on Biofuel and fuel cell industry, allowing our research laboratories to continue with their life changing inventions.  " A clean environment" is a path to clean and revitalized nation. A policy to stabilize and put our men and women to work and investing on our neighbors, to put a stop on all foreclosures with the promise of cheaper and intelligent workers from our own citizens but assured of a home and education.
  • Reinvent our export policy.
  • Refocus our of investing abroad not by exploiting other cultures but genuinely promoting clean energy, educating other cultures, cleaning their towns, through conservation;
  • Refocus our engineers and architects energies to provide "cool and smart towns", cool cities.
  • Spend at least 6 to 8% of GDP to restart the slugging economy.
  • Provide a vision to help our neighboring Mexicans, Brazilians, South americans to help strenghtened the Americas, "looking beyond our borders"!
  • Assist our Japanese friends and Asian neighbors and lend a helping hand.
  • Ask our global neighbors "what do you need from USA to help you?" In world war II we sent our youth to fight expansionism of Japan and Germany. This time we and our youth will be deployed to meet to build their Power needs, their new schools, healthy towns, build on smart cities and towns, provide basic healthy food, toilets, roof on their head.
Let us institutionalize our systems of helping the needy ones, our own shanties, our own schools and let our financial systems be the backbone of "green revolution in our towns"!

These are some ideas to put our people to work. It is the vision that we need, it is the leadership that we need from our politicos, " A divided house" stalls our country to a halt!

Perhaps most unsettling for the country’s leaders is the creeping rise in the inflation rate; China’s consumer price index went up 6.4 percent year-on-year in June, the steepest rise in three years. Analysts say average inflation for the year is certain to surpass the 4 percent benchmark Chinese leaders had set. Though it may be peaking, “inflation is likely to remain the policy priority well into the fourth quarter,” Alistair Thornton, a China analyst at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a report last week.

Inflation puts China in much more of a policy bind if the West gets mired in another deep slump. In 2008, when the global financial crisis hit, China relied on stimulus spending and loose lending by state banks to pump up infrastructure building and other capital-intensive projects to maintain economic growth. Now, Chinese officials are concerned about rampant corruption, over spending and are trying to tighten bank lending.

One point of tension between the United States and China has faded into the background in recent months: China’s valuation of its currency. The Obama administration had long pushed China to appreciate its currency to correct trade imbalances and help restructure the world economy. The Chinese government was reluctant to do so, fearing the cost to exports. But an undervalued renminbi contributes to inflation, so China has been slowly letting the renminbi rise against the dollar. I doubt if the Chinese will appreciate its currency, its like killing their own "golden goose."  At some point in the global scene and gyration, China will see its economy in a turmoil simply because there are no more exports market to sustain itself. No financial haven to provide investment to treasury hoarding economy and inflation rises to uncontrollable level- a need for drastic costly financial engineering!

Is Partnering with Germany, France, or Europe going to be the smartest financial move?  The world cannot wait to stabilize and put out contagion fires around the globe!

  • Chinese manufacturers’ backlogs of orders are gradually shrinking in many industries. Purchasing managers have become less optimistic about their businesses’ prospects. And after surging past the United States in car sales over the last two years, the Chinese auto market unexpectedly stalled last month, as car makers curtailed production plans.

  • Because China’s cooling economy is partly a result of Beijing’s efforts to contain inflation, some economists are not worried, saying a slight slowdown could be positive. And they say that after the government eases off the brakes, economic growth should quickly pick back up.
  • But other experts worry that inflation is already so entrenched that the government may be forced to continue braking the economy for a considerable time.

  • “They have to continue to tighten policy into what we expect will be a sharp growth downturn, already likely to be under way,” said Diana Choyleva, an economist in the Hong Kong office of Lombard Street Research, an economic forecasting firm based in London.

  • The world closely monitors the temperature of China’s economy, so crucial has it become to the health of global business and finance. This spring, as economists at Western investment banks have been reducing their growth forecasts for China, the specter of slackening Chinese demand has helped send world prices for industrial commodities like copper falling by 10 percent or more.

The issue may also be losing some of its weight in American politics. The International Monetary Fund pointed out in a report last month that a stronger renminbi would not necessarily bolster job creation in the United States.

So instead of Mr. Biden pressing the Chinese on their currency, Chinese officials are likely to be pressing him about the stability of the dollar. All the while, they will be trying to gauge the strength of President Obama, having witnessed the difficulties he faced in persuading Republicans in Congress to raise the debt ceiling.

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